Experts are more likely to believe that European start-ups (29%) will prevail in the European New Mobility market than they would expect from US start-ups (14%). The majority of experts have a neutral position (46% -59%) on this issue. Nevertheless, UBER is the start-up, which is most frequently referred to (23%) in the open question about the "most promising start-up" . However, in the case of this open, multiple response question, 23% is not an outstanding value in relation to the degree of awareness of UBER. A total of over 120 different start-ups have been mentioned. This is also a sign of a dynamic mobility market situation with low international transparency at present.
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PRESS RELEASE/ GBD' s European New Mobility Experts Survey 2016
Who will win the new mobility race? A look ahead and how current developments are shaking up the mobility market.
The Berlin-based consultancy Green Business Development (GBD) conducted an independent expert survey with the aim to bring more transparency into the new mobility market. GBD's European new mobility survey 2016 is the first Europe-wide expert survey on the development of this extremely dynamic market. More than 200 experts from more than 8 countries participated in this study. Respondents included experts from 9 business sectors: the automotive industry, start-ups, public transport agencies, accelerators and incubators, investors, consultancies, governments and public sector, research institutes and universities. Mobility services are regarded as comprehensive solutions that integrate the users’ mobility ecosystems.In this study the term ‘new mobility’ includes various forms of new mobility services: carsharing, ride-sharing, e-hailing, intermodal mobility services, parking services and logistics services.
Legislation plays a crucial role in the development ofthe mobility market
Against the backdrop of changing mobility behavior, innovative concepts, resources, as well as organizational and technical solutions are necessitated. This also includes a change in mobility legislation. According to 60 % of experts, mobility legislation should become more liberal. While the agreement in most countries ranges from 48%-70%, amongst Israeli experts the
call for liberal mobility legislation to ensure efficient urban mobilityis the highest (83%). French experts, however, remain skeptical. Only a few (26%) would support liberal mobility legislation.
Contrasting developments in cities and rural areas
Currently, new mobility solutions mainly target large urban areas. Concepts such as carsharing and intermodal mobility services have already arrived in metropolitan areas with mature infrastructure and large populations in place. Higher density makes cities particularly attractive. According to experts, the new mobility hotspots of the next few years are expected to be London (35%), Berlin (32%) and Amsterdam (25%). 84% of experts agree that start-ups will continue to focus on cities first. While currently, rural areas appear to be chronically neglected, nevertheless, 77% of experts see an opportunity for mobility service providers to explore this attractive niche by adapting their offer structures and developing innovative schemes.
Start-ups are disrupting the mobility market
The mobility market is changing from a two-pillar model of public transport and the automotive industry to a triangular relationship with start-ups. The protagonists who cooperate with start-ups will have a decisive market advantage. 78% of experts agree that the automotive industry should extend cooperation and joint ventures with start-ups. While 36% agree that the automotive industry should develop own new mobility services. Similar recommendations are given to PTAs: while only 24% of experts agree that PTAs should develop their own intelligent transportation system (ITS) services, 90% would recommend increased cooperation and joint-ventures with start-ups. The most promising new mobility segments appear to be e-hailing and carsharing which, according to experts, are expected to grow on average annually by 13%, and intermodal mobility services by 12% within the next 5 years until 2021. 80% of experts, however, believe that only a few start-ups will survive in the next 5-10 years. This is largely believed especially amongst experts from the automotive industry (93%), while respondents from start-ups (67%) and incubators and accelerators (75%) remain more optimistic.
Dynamic mobility market situation with low international transparency
When asked about the most promising start-ups in the respondents’ respective country, more than 120 different start-ups were named. The undecided position is also reflected when asked who will dominate the European new mobility market. 29% of experts believe that European start-ups will have a decisive market advantage and will dominate, while only 14% expect U.S. start-ups to successfully set hold in the European market. The majority of experts, however, maintain a neutral position (46% -59%) on this issue.
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GBD’s European New Mobility Experts Survey 2016: Conclusion and recommendations
• Automotive industry, PTAs and local authorities will be facing a rapidly developing and extremely dynamic mobility market. Lots of start-ups with innovative mobility solutions and ideas are grasping new business opportunities and are pushing themselves between the ‘hardware’ of mobility (auto, public transport) and their customers.
• Legislation plays a key role in shaping the market of new mobility services. By enforcing restrictive legislation, public authorities will be able to defend current practices of public transport in cities for some time, however not in the long-run. New mobility concepts offer not only competition but also improved services and environmentally friendly solutions for citizens. Recognizing that there is a need to adjust current mobility legislation will enable authorities and PTAs to actively shape the
development of the new mobility market, instead of merely reacting with individual solutions to disrupting changes.
• Appropriate reactions by the automotive industry and PTAs can be twofold: they can either develop mutually beneficial relationships by ways of enhanced cooperation and joint ventures with start-ups or develop own ITS solutions. PTA should focus on regionally integrated ITS-solutions with various PTAs pooling their IT-resources.
• Smart start-ups are allocating large investments to marketing to unlock customer access. Their fruitful business models are based on optimizing usability while using the expensive ‘hardware’ (buses, trains, subways, cars) of public authorities and private owners (peer-to-peer). PTAs can help to actively shape this rapidly evolving market using their decisive advantage - the access to their customers. Looking at these developments, PTAs and authorities are forced to react, not to lose market shares in the area of intermodal mobility services when start-ups will be tapping into the PTAs’ existing customer base.
• While currently, most cities and regions are adapting individual, local solutions with low rates of transferability, investors and start-ups have recognized the need to generate new mobility services that follow a common international approach: one IT-solution for multiple regions and countries. The demand for Mobility as a Service (MaaS) solutions with an international scope that provide enhanced efficiency and maximum usability for customers is rising.